How to read an aurora forecast
Activity, clear skies and darkness answer different questions. You need to consider them together.
Forecast versus observation
A forecast estimates future conditions. NOAA's current Kp is an estimate of geomagnetic disturbance, not a report that someone sees aurora in Anchorage. OVATION is also a model, not a sighting.
Match the time scales
NOAA Kp forecasts are in three-hour blocks. Weather models can provide hourly clouds. Combining them does not create a precise hourly prediction of the aurora's arrival.
Make a practical decision
Check clouds and darkness first, then activity and current source timestamps. If key inputs are missing, wait for an update rather than treating an incomplete forecast as either promising or unfavorable.
References & further reading
General educational guidance, not a live access report. Local access and conditions require current official checks.